Written By Idowu Ephraim Faleye – 08132100608
In the history of modern Nigerian politics, it’s hard to find anyone as battle-hardened, audacious, and strategically refined as President Bola Ahmed Tinubu. Whether one supports him or not, it’s difficult to deny that he is one of the most prepared politicians ever to assume the office of the President in Nigeria. So, when people begin to question whether he can turn around Nigeria’s struggling economy, the more pressing question becomes—if Tinubu cannot, then who possibly can?
Tinubu didn’t stumble into power. His rise to the presidency was the product of a long-term strategic blueprint that was both bold and meticulous. From his days as a senator during the aborted Third Republic to his transformative years as Lagos State Governor between 1999 and 2007, Tinubu built influence block by block, state by state, and relationship by relationship. He invested in people, institutions, alliances, and legacy. Even his fiercest critics acknowledge his uncanny ability to plan years ahead, predict political trends, and position himself advantageously.
His time as Lagos governor remains a reference point for economic reform. When he took over, Lagos was struggling with a low Internally Generated Revenue (IGR). By the time he left, he had laid a framework that increased the state’s IGR from about N600 million monthly to over N8 billion. Today, Lagos generates more revenue internally than some West African countries. The success wasn’t magic. It was the result of deliberate reforms, including tax system restructuring, public-private partnerships, and infrastructure investment. That track record made many believe he was the right man to rescue Nigeria’s bleeding economy.
But getting to Aso Rock was never easy. His 2023 presidential bid tested everything he had built for over three decades. The odds were stacked heavily against him from all directions. His own party was divided. The then-incumbent president, Muhammadu Buhari, gave no public endorsement. Many within the National Assembly were lukewarm. The Christian bloc vehemently opposed his Muslim-Muslim ticket. Influential Yoruba leaders like Chief Ayo Adebanjo and former President Olusegun Obasanjo did not back him. Afenifere, the socio-political umbrella of the Yoruba, openly disowned him. The South-South and South-East largely rejected his candidacy. Even some of his closest political associates quietly worked against him.
Beyond politics, powerful institutions resisted his ambition. The Central Bank of Nigeria’s Naira redesign and cash crunch policy months before the election disrupted grassroots mobilization. The Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) and other economic agencies were suspected to have acted in ways that weakened his momentum. The opposition capitalized on the economic hardship and blamed his party’s legacy. Yet, against all these odds, he emerged victorious.
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That victory was not just electoral—it was symbolic. It was the triumph of persistence, calculation, and sheer grit. It showcased Tinubu’s defining qualities: his courage, his street-smart wisdom, his experience in governance, his ability to build formidable political networks, and above all, his fighting spirit. His success was the final confirmation that Tinubu was not just another politician but a phenomenon.
Tinubu’s background in accounting, particularly his professional experience with Deloitte and later Mobil Oil Nigeria where he rose to the position of treasurer, gave him deep insight into financial systems and oil-sector economics. He understands numbers, budget forecasts, and macroeconomic indicators. Unlike many past leaders who approached governance with passion but no technical expertise, Tinubu came prepared.
Upon assuming office in May 2023, the first major economic decision he made was removing the fuel subsidy. This had been a contentious issue for decades. Nigeria spent billions annually subsidizing petrol, with most of the benefits going to smugglers and elites. It was a drain on national resources and a major contributor to budget deficits. Tinubu ended it immediately. The impact was harsh—fuel prices soared, inflation spiked, and the cost of living increased dramatically. But the decision, many economists agree, was necessary. It freed up over $10 billion in budgetary savings, funds that could now be directed to capital projects, education, and health care.
Another tough call was the unification of exchange rates. For years, Nigeria operated multiple exchange windows—official, parallel, and export-import rates—which created loopholes for corruption and arbitrage. Tinubu’s administration collapsed them into a single market-driven rate. The naira weakened significantly, and imports became more expensive. But again, this reform was designed to eliminate rent-seeking and make the forex market more transparent.
Understandably, these decisions caused short-term pain. Inflation soared to over 34% by early 2024—the highest in almost three decades. Food prices doubled. Small businesses suffered. But no reform of this magnitude ever comes without sacrifice. It was the bitter pill needed to stabilize an economy that had been mismanaged for years.
To cushion the effect of these reforms, the government launched palliative measures. Minimum wage adjustments, cash transfers to vulnerable families, and fuel transport subsidies were implemented. Still, the relief felt minimal compared to the hardship. Nigerians wanted quick solutions to years of decay, but economic recovery takes time. President Tinubu has consistently asked for patience, pledging that better days are ahead.
One must not ignore Tinubu’s international diplomatic outreach. He aggressively pursued foreign investment. His trips to India, Germany, the UAE, and the U.S. were all aimed at securing investment partnerships. The agreements signed included energy infrastructure projects, digital economy collaborations, and private capital investments in Nigerian enterprises. These are the seeds of future growth. They won’t bear fruit overnight, but they show a deliberate strategy to integrate Nigeria into the global economy.
Domestically, he’s investing in infrastructure and digital economy reforms. Projects like the Lagos-Calabar Coastal Highway, which began under his tenure, signal a serious focus on transportation infrastructure. There’s also a revived focus on railways, airport concessions, and broadband expansion. The administration aims to use these to stimulate job creation and reduce Nigeria’s high youth unemployment rate, which stood at over 50% by 2023.
There are genuine criticisms, and they must be acknowledged. Many believe the reforms lacked a human face—that the government underestimated the impact on the poorest Nigerians. Others argue that corruption remains rampant in ministries and that governance needs to be more transparent. But one cannot deny that President Tinubu inherited an economy on life support, and he is at least applying the necessary defibrillator shocks.
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He is perhaps the last man standing from the era of true political craftsmanship. From his mentorship under Obafemi Awolowo’s legacy to his involvement in the pro-democracy struggle alongside MKO Abiola, Tinubu has always been close to Nigeria’s power pulse. He understands the country’s fault lines—ethnic, religious, and economic—and has shown a capacity to navigate them better than most.
He is not perfect, and he doesn’t claim to be. But if a man with Tinubu’s exposure, credentials, and courage fails to fix Nigeria’s economy, it is hard to imagine who else within the current political class can. Most others are either too inexperienced, too compromised, or simply not equipped.
Tinubu is not just Nigeria’s president. He is a culmination of decades of strategic groundwork, mistakes, comebacks, victories, and setbacks. His financial empire, political machinery, and human capital investments are unmatched. That he still rose to the top when so many forces tried to stop him is proof that his journey wasn’t accidental—it was earned.
And so, if by the end of his tenure Nigeria is still in economic ruins, we may have to confront a hard truth: it may not be just about leadership anymore. The system itself may be too broken to salvage from the center. In that case, every region might need to consider a decentralized model to rebuild from the roots. Because if Asiwaju Tinubu—the one man who combined competence, charisma, courage, and grace—cannot get it done, then perhaps no one else within this current generation of Nigerian politicians can.
This is not a call for division. It is a cry of frustration. Nigerians are tired. They have trusted leaders again and again and been disappointed again and again. But they are also hopeful. They are still willing to endure suffering if they see signs of progress. They are not asking for magic, just results.
In the end, history will judge Tinubu not by his boldness but by the outcomes of his policies. And if he succeeds, he may just rewrite the story of leadership in Nigeria. But if he fails, the disappointment will not just be political—it will be national, generational, and deeply personal for millions who hoped he would be different.
And that’s why the stakes are so high. Because this is not just about Tinubu. This is about the future of a country that has long teetered on the edge, desperately searching for a leader who can truly turn things around.
Idowu Faleye is the founder and publisher of EphraimHill DataBlog, a platform committed to Data Journalism and Policy Analysis. With Public administration and Data Analytics background, his articles offer research-driven insights on Politics, governance and Public Service delivery
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